No One Knows The Future Of The Housing Market

Like most consumers, if you have any interest in either buying or selling your home right now you are probably glued to information.  Whether it's through the internet or media you are hearing something that is going to send you into a state of doubt, uncertainty, or even retreating.  Giving up on the idea that you should buy or sell right now.

Most people will have an opinion on what’s going to happen over the next year.  Logically they will show reasons, they will show information.  And it's all going to fit what they say will happen over the next year.

The problem is you can’t trust information.  You can’t trust what the big guys, the Wall Street people are telling you. For example, they can tell you this - home prices are gonna sink across the country. But that can be a part of their plan to drive pricing down so they can buy more.

There will be a time in the current environment when Wall Street owns perhaps 60-70% of all houses.  One of the best ways for Wall Street investors to get a great return is to own a home and rent it out. They get appreciation, they get tax breaks, and they get cash flow.  So you just really can not believe everything that they are telling you because they have their reasons for trying to control the market.

So what I would tell you is to be reasonable.  Make sense of what it is that you want to do.  

I believe that there are only two reasons why anyone would ever want to buy a house.  Number one, they need to solve a problem.  They need to upsize.  They need to downsize.  They are transferring into our area.  They are transferring out of our area.  There is something like that which is going to make them buy a new home or sell their home.  The other is they simply that just fall in love with what they find.

My prediction is this.   We are heading into a slowdown in housing turnover where it will take longer and it will get harder to sell homes, but the government has always found a way to ease the pain.  That might take a little while.  It might be next year, but the government will find a way to get people into homes and give them a good opportunity.

I see interest rates.  The 30-year rate is completely different than when the Fed is raising rates.  I see interest rates next year based on what I follow, Tide inflation.  I believe mortgage rates will definitely be under 5% by next year as inflation comes under control.

So be careful about what you see.  Be careful about what you listen to.  Remember this, most people who are telling you things have their reasons.